Title: Future Prospects of Small Scale
Industrial
Sector of Punjab
Abstract: Present
study seeks the generation of forecasts of number of units, employment,
capital
formation and production of small scale industrial sector of Punjab for
ensuing
decade till 2019-20.Forecasts have been generated for the lead time of
13
years by using Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model,
based
on identifying the pattern followed by past values of a each variable
and
then extrapolating the pattern in the past for near future. The
analysis
of forecasted figures has revealed that the fixed capital investment
and
production would experience significant growth during the lead time of
thirteen
years. Number of units and employment are expected to observe meager
growth
during this period indicating low possibility of absorption of labour
force
in this sector. In the light of the forecasts it is required on the
part
of the state government to take all sort concerted efforts initiatives
to
strengthen the industrial base in Punjab. In this regard catastrophic
changes
are required so far as industrial policy of Punjab is concerned.
Author: Sanjeev
Gupta